test(verify): gate on regressions against the generic slot, not fallback rate

A source-fallback percentage stopped being a readiness signal once
bincraft learned to keep a matching-minor generic binary out of a
fallback's shadow. What survives now is the case where the generic
binary was built under a different minor: unsafe for this client anyway,
so serving source is correct, just slow. Failing on that share would
block slots that are in fact ready - amd64/noble sits at 53% for 4.5 and
4.6 while regressing nobody.

Gate on the thing that decides it instead: packages this client would
receive as source through per-minor routing while the generic slot holds
a binary built under its own minor. That is strictly worse than not
routing, and must be zero. Fallback share is still printed, as context
rather than a verdict.

Measured zero across every reindexed slot and minor.

cdn.tf

@@ -52,6 +52,26 @@
 
 ### cran.rpkgs.com
 
+locals {
+  rpkgs_slots = [
+    for pair in setproduct(
+      ["amd64", "arm64"],
+      ["resolute", "noble", "jammy", "rhel8", "rhel9", "rhel10", "alpine323", "alpine324"]
+    ) : "${pair[0]}/${pair[1]}"
+  ]
+
+  # The supported R minors: the current one plus the two previous, which is
+  # exactly what build-env-images installs as R_VERSION_LATEST / PREV1 / PREV2.
+  # These must stay in step. A minor listed here without a published index
+  # sends those clients to a 404; a published minor missing from this list
+  # sends them to CRAN for sources instead of serving the binaries we built.
+  rpkgs_supported_minors = ["4.4", "4.5", "4.6"]
+
+  # bunny.net serves every pull zone on <name>.b-cdn.net, so staging needs no
+  # DNS record and is never advertised.
+  rpkgs_test_hostname = "cran-rpkgs-test.b-cdn.net"
+}
+
 # The edge middleware that resolves the bare cran.rpkgs.com form to an
 # <arch>/<os> slot and routes PACKAGES* to the per-R-minor slot. The source of
 # truth is edge/rpkgs-router.ts; `tofu apply` publishes a new release.
@@ -75,6 +95,13 @@ resource "bunnynet_compute_script_variable" "rpkgs_router_union_slots" {
   required      = false
 }
 
+resource "bunnynet_compute_script_variable" "rpkgs_router_known_minors" {
+  script        = bunnynet_compute_script.rpkgs_router.id
+  name          = "KNOWN_MINORS"
+  default_value = join(",", local.rpkgs_supported_minors)
+  required      = false
+}
+
 resource "bunnynet_pullzone" "cran_rpkgs_com" {
   name = "cran-rpkgs"
 
@@ -147,6 +174,92 @@ resource "bunnynet_pullzone_hostname" "cran_rpkgs_com" {
   tls_enabled = true
 }
 
+### Staging zone for edge-router changes
+
+# Every published <arch>/<os> slot. The staging zone enables per-minor routing
+# for all of them at once; production adopts the same list only after
+# `scripts/verify-r-minor-routing.sh --live` passes against staging.
+
+# A second copy of the same router, bound to the same B2 origin, so UNION_SLOTS
+# can be exercised end to end before production is touched.
+resource "bunnynet_compute_script" "rpkgs_router_test" {
+  type    = "middleware"
+  name    = "rpkgs-router-test"
+  content = file("${path.module}/edge/rpkgs-router.ts")
+}
+
+resource "bunnynet_compute_script_variable" "rpkgs_router_test_union_slots" {
+  script        = bunnynet_compute_script.rpkgs_router_test.id
+  name          = "UNION_SLOTS"
+  default_value = join(",", local.rpkgs_slots)
+  required      = false
+}
+
+# Without this the staging zone rewrites to PUBLIC_CDN_ORIGIN, so its redirects
+# land on production and the test silently measures the wrong system.
+resource "bunnynet_compute_script_variable" "rpkgs_router_test_extra_hosts" {
+  script        = bunnynet_compute_script.rpkgs_router_test.id
+  name          = "EXTRA_PUBLIC_HOSTS"
+  default_value = local.rpkgs_test_hostname
+  required      = false
+}
+
+resource "bunnynet_compute_script_variable" "rpkgs_router_test_known_minors" {
+  script        = bunnynet_compute_script.rpkgs_router_test.id
+  name          = "KNOWN_MINORS"
+  default_value = join(",", local.rpkgs_supported_minors)
+  required      = false
+}
+
+resource "bunnynet_pullzone" "cran_rpkgs_test" {
+  name = "cran-rpkgs-test"
+
+  cache_errors = false
+
+  cache_expiration_time = 31919000
+  websockets_enabled    = false
+  errorpage_whitelabel  = true
+
+  origin {
+    type              = "OriginUrl"
+    url               = "https://devxy-rpkgs-binaries.s3.eu-central-003.backblazeb2.com"
+    middleware_script = bunnynet_compute_script.rpkgs_router_test.id
+  }
+
+  routing {
+    filters = [
+      "scripting",
+    ]
+  }
+
+  s3_auth_enabled = true
+  s3_auth_key     = var.B2_S3_ACCESS_KEY
+  s3_auth_secret  = var.B2_S3_SECRET_KEY
+  s3_auth_region  = "eu-central-003"
+
+  cache_enabled              = true
+  request_coalescing_enabled = true
+  block_post_requests        = true
+
+  cache_vary_headers = ["User-Agent"]
+
+  # Staging carries only synthetic verification traffic, so the production
+  # ceilings would be pure headroom.
+  limit_requests    = 500
+  limit_connections = 100
+
+  safehop_enabled      = true
+  add_canonical_header = true
+  cache_stale          = ["offline", "updating"]
+  block_ips            = var.cdn_block_ips
+
+  # 1 TB
+  limit_bandwidth = 1000000000000
+
+  block_root_path = true
+}
+
+
 # Alliance SwissPass historically used a separate, manually configured pull
 # zone. Adopt it so both public repositories use the same B2 origin, middleware
 # release and cache behavior.

edge/rpkgs-router.test.ts

@@ -17,6 +17,8 @@ const UNION_SLOTS = 'amd64/alpine324';
 
 const UA_R45_MUSL = 'R (4.5.3 x86_64-pc-linux-musl x86_64 linux-musl)';
 const UA_R46_MUSL = 'R (4.6.0 x86_64-pc-linux-musl x86_64 linux-musl)';
+const UA_R43_MUSL = 'R (4.3.3 x86_64-pc-linux-musl x86_64 linux-musl)';
+const UA_R47_MUSL = 'R (4.7.0 x86_64-pc-linux-musl x86_64 linux-musl)';
 const UA_R45_ALPINE = 'R/4.5.3 R (4.5.3 x86_64-pc-linux-musl x86_64 linux-musl) Alpine Linux 3.24';
 const UA_R45_RESOLUTE = 'R/4.5.3 (Ubuntu 26.04) (aarch64-unknown-linux-gnu aarch64 linux-gnu)';
 const UA_R45_FUTURE_UBUNTU =
@@ -96,6 +98,33 @@ Deno.test('rpkgs-router', async (t) => {
       assertEquals(res.location, `https://cran.rpkgs.com${SLOT}/4.6/PACKAGES.gz`);
     });
 
+    // We publish binaries only for the supported window. An excluded minor has
+    // no slot we can serve safely, so it goes to CRAN for sources rather than
+    // to a 404 or to binaries built under another minor.
+    await t.step('sends an excluded R minor to CRAN for the index', async () => {
+      const res = await probe(`${SLOT}/PACKAGES.gz`, UA_R43_MUSL);
+      assertEquals(res.location, 'https://cran.r-project.org/src/contrib/PACKAGES.gz');
+    });
+
+    await t.step('sends a future R minor to CRAN too', async () => {
+      const res = await probe(`${SLOT}/PACKAGES.gz`, UA_R47_MUSL);
+      assertEquals(res.location, 'https://cran.r-project.org/src/contrib/PACKAGES.gz');
+    });
+
+    // The index and the tarballs R resolves against it have to come from the
+    // same place. Serving one from CRAN and the other from here would hand R a
+    // binary where it expects a source tarball.
+    await t.step('sends an excluded minor to CRAN for tarballs as well', async () => {
+      const res = await probe(`${SLOT}/foo_1.0.tar.gz`, UA_R43_MUSL);
+      assertEquals(res.location, 'https://cran.r-project.org/src/contrib/foo_1.0.tar.gz');
+    });
+
+    await t.step('leaves an excluded minor alone on a slot outside UNION_SLOTS', async () => {
+      const res = await probe(`${OTHER_SLOT}/PACKAGES.gz`, UA_R43_MUSL);
+      assertEquals(res.location, null);
+      assertEquals(res.status, 200);
+    });
+
     await t.step('routes PACKAGES and PACKAGES.rds too', async () => {
       for (const file of ['PACKAGES', 'PACKAGES.rds']) {
         const res = await probe(`${SLOT}/${file}`, UA_R45_MUSL);
@@ -146,18 +175,12 @@ Deno.test('rpkgs-router', async (t) => {
 
     await t.step('resolves Ubuntu 26.04 to the resolute slot', async () => {
       const res = await probe('/src/contrib/PACKAGES.gz', UA_R45_RESOLUTE);
-      assertEquals(
+      assertEquals(res.location, 'https://cran.rpkgs.com/arm64/resolute/latest/src/contrib/PACKAGES.gz');
-        res.location,
-        'https://cran.rpkgs.com/arm64/resolute/latest/src/contrib/PACKAGES.gz',
-      );
     });
 
     await t.step('resolves a future Ubuntu release from its codename', async () => {
       const res = await probe('/src/contrib/PACKAGES.gz', UA_R45_FUTURE_UBUNTU);
-      assertEquals(
+      assertEquals(res.location, 'https://cran.rpkgs.com/arm64/dynamic-dugong/latest/src/contrib/PACKAGES.gz');
-        res.location,
-        'https://cran.rpkgs.com/arm64/dynamic-dugong/latest/src/contrib/PACKAGES.gz',
-      );
     });
 
     await t.step('sends an unidentifiable distro to CRAN', async () => {

edge/rpkgs-router.ts

@@ -27,7 +27,17 @@ import * as BunnySDK from 'https://esm.sh/@bunny.net/edgescript-sdk@0.12';
 
 const PUBLIC_CDN_ORIGIN = 'https://cran.rpkgs.com';
 const CRAN_ORIGIN = 'https://cran.r-project.org';
-const PUBLIC_CDN_HOSTS = new Set(['cran.rpkgs.com', 'cran.allianceswisspass.devxy.io']);
+const PUBLIC_CDN_HOSTS = new Set([
+  'cran.rpkgs.com',
+  'cran.allianceswisspass.devxy.io',
+  // Staging hostnames, so the identical script can run on a test pull zone and
+  // redirect within itself. Without this a test zone rewrites to
+  // PUBLIC_CDN_ORIGIN, quietly exercising production instead of itself.
+  ...(Deno.env.get('EXTRA_PUBLIC_HOSTS') ?? '')
+    .split(',')
+    .map((host) => host.trim())
+    .filter((host) => host.length > 0),
+]);
 
 /** Slots ("<arch>/<os>", comma separated) whose per-minor index is a union. */
 const UNION_SLOTS = new Set(
@@ -37,6 +47,21 @@ const UNION_SLOTS = new Set(
     .filter((slot) => slot.length > 0),
 );
 
+/**
+ * R minors for which a per-minor index is actually published.
+ *
+ * contribPath() has no way to probe the origin, so a minor that is not
+ * published here must fall back to the flat index. Routing an unlisted minor
+ * would send that client to a 404 and it would see no packages at all - a
+ * silent, total failure rather than a degraded one.
+ */
+const KNOWN_MINORS = new Set(
+  (Deno.env.get('KNOWN_MINORS') ?? '4.4,4.5,4.6')
+    .split(',')
+    .map((minor) => minor.trim())
+    .filter((minor) => minor.length > 0),
+);
+
 /** `/<arch>/<os>/latest/src/contrib[/<rest>]` */
 const SLOT_PATH_REGEX = /^\/(amd64|arm64)\/([a-z0-9._-]+)\/latest\/src\/contrib\/?(.*)$/;
 
@@ -96,6 +121,18 @@ function publicCdnOrigin(url: URL): string {
   return PUBLIC_CDN_HOSTS.has(url.hostname) ? url.origin : PUBLIC_CDN_ORIGIN;
 }
 
+/**
+ * True when the client reports an R minor that we deliberately do not serve.
+ *
+ * A client that reports no minor at all is not "unsupported": non-R fetchers
+ * (mirror scripts, image builds) must keep getting the flat slot. Only a
+ * known-and-excluded minor falls through to CRAN.
+ */
+function isExcludedMinor(userAgent: string): boolean {
+  const rMinor = extractRMinor(userAgent);
+  return rMinor !== null && !KNOWN_MINORS.has(rMinor);
+}
+
 function extractRMinor(userAgent: string): string | null {
   for (const regex of R_MINOR_REGEXES) {
     const match = userAgent.match(regex);
@@ -177,8 +214,8 @@ function parseMacUserAgent(userAgent: string): { os: string; arch: string; rver:
  * The contrib path a request should be served from, relative to the slot.
  *
  * Returns the per-minor path for an index file when the slot is known to carry
- * a union index and the client's R minor is known; otherwise the flat path,
+ * a union index and the client's R minor is one we publish; otherwise the flat
- * which is what every client sees today.
+ * path, which is what every client sees today.
  */
 function contribPath(slot: string, rest: string, userAgent: string): string {
   const flat = rest ? `/${slot}/latest/src/contrib/${rest}` : `/${slot}/latest/src/contrib`;
@@ -188,7 +225,7 @@ function contribPath(slot: string, rest: string, userAgent: string): string {
   }
 
   const rMinor = extractRMinor(userAgent);
-  return rMinor ? `/${slot}/latest/src/contrib/${rMinor}/${rest}` : flat;
+  return rMinor && KNOWN_MINORS.has(rMinor) ? `/${slot}/latest/src/contrib/${rMinor}/${rest}` : flat;
 }
 
 BunnySDK.net.http
@@ -224,6 +261,16 @@ BunnySDK.net.http
         return Promise.resolve(ctx.request);
       }
 
+      // An R minor outside the supported window has no binaries we can safely
+      // serve, so the whole interaction goes to CRAN: the index and the
+      // tarballs R will resolve against it. Serving the index from CRAN but
+      // tarballs from here would hand R a binary where it expects a source
+      // tarball, which fails in a far more confusing way than not being
+      // served at all.
+      if (UNION_SLOTS.has(slot) && isExcludedMinor(userAgent)) {
+        return Promise.resolve(redirectTo(`${CRAN_ORIGIN}/src/contrib/${rest}`));
+      }
+
       const target = contribPath(slot, rest, userAgent);
       if (target === path) {
         return Promise.resolve(ctx.request);
@@ -238,6 +285,10 @@ BunnySDK.net.http
         return Promise.resolve(redirectTo(`${CRAN_ORIGIN}${path}`));
       }
 
+      if (UNION_SLOTS.has(slot) && isExcludedMinor(userAgent)) {
+        return Promise.resolve(redirectTo(`${CRAN_ORIGIN}${path}`));
+      }
+
       const rest = srcContrib ? srcContrib[1] : '';
       return Promise.resolve(redirectTo(`${publicOrigin}${contribPath(slot, rest, userAgent)}`));
     }

scripts/verify-r-minor-routing.sh

@@ -0,0 +1,371 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+#
+# Verify per-R-minor index routing for cran.rpkgs.com across every published
+# <arch>/<os> slot.
+#
+# The edge router (edge/rpkgs-router.ts) rewrites PACKAGES* requests to
+# `contrib/<x.y>/` when the slot is listed in UNION_SLOTS and the client's
+# User-Agent carries an R minor. Two properties have to hold before a slot may
+# be added to UNION_SLOTS:
+#
+#   1. the per-minor index is a UNION of the per-minor and flat slots, so
+#      routing to it hides nothing the flat index carries; and
+#   2. every R minor a client might report resolves to an index that exists,
+#      because contribPath() does not check existence and has no fallback.
+#
+# Modes:
+#   (default)  Resolve routing decisions without depending on UNION_SLOTS being
+#              set. Safe to run before enabling: it reads the per-minor indexes
+#              directly and reproduces the router's target path.
+#   --live     Additionally drive the real CDN with R User-Agents and assert the
+#              bytes served match the expected index. Only meaningful once the
+#              slot is in UNION_SLOTS.
+#
+# Usage:
+#   scripts/verify-r-minor-routing.sh
+#   scripts/verify-r-minor-routing.sh --live
+#   MINORS="4.4 4.5" SAMPLE=10 scripts/verify-r-minor-routing.sh
+#
+# Exits non-zero if any check fails.
+
+set -uo pipefail
+
+BASE=${BASE:-https://cran.rpkgs.com}
+ARCHES=${ARCHES:-"amd64 arm64"}
+DISTROS=${DISTROS:-"resolute noble jammy rhel8 rhel9 rhel10 alpine323 alpine324"}
+# The supported window: the current R minor plus the two previous, matching
+# build-env-images' R_VERSION_LATEST/PREV1/PREV2 and cdn.tf's
+# local.rpkgs_supported_minors. Each of these must have a published index.
+MINORS=${MINORS:-"4.4 4.5 4.6"}
+# Minors we deliberately do not serve. These must have NO published index and,
+# once routing is live, must be sent to CRAN for sources rather than 404ing or
+# being handed binaries built under another minor.
+EXCLUDED_MINORS=${EXCLUDED_MINORS:-"4.3"}
+# How many Path: targets to HEAD-check per slot/minor. 0 disables.
+SAMPLE=${SAMPLE:-5}
+# Largest package-count shortfall a non-primary minor may have against the best
+# minor on the same slot before coverage counts as uneven. A slot built under
+# one R minor carries fewer per-minor binaries for the others; until that gap
+# closes, "full coverage for ABI-sensitive packages" is not a claim we can make.
+PARITY_TOLERANCE=${PARITY_TOLERANCE:-25}
+# Source fallbacks are reported, not failed on. Since bincraft learned to keep
+# a matching-minor generic binary out of a fallback's shadow, a remaining
+# fallback means the generic slot's binary was built under a *different* minor,
+# which is unsafe for this client anyway: serving source there is correct, just
+# slow. The gate below is what actually matters.
+#
+# A REGRESSION is a package this client would receive as source through
+# per-minor routing but as a binary built under its own minor from the generic
+# slot. That is strictly worse than not routing at all, and must be zero before
+# a slot is added to UNION_SLOTS.
+MAX_REGRESSIONS=${MAX_REGRESSIONS:-0}
+LIVE=0
+
+for arg in "$@"; do
+  case "$arg" in
+    --live) LIVE=1 ;;
+    -h | --help)
+      sed -n '2,32p' "$0"
+      exit 0
+      ;;
+    *)
+      echo "unknown argument: $arg" >&2
+      exit 2
+      ;;
+  esac
+done
+
+WORK=$(mktemp -d)
+trap 'rm -rf "$WORK"' EXIT
+
+PASS=0
+FAIL=0
+FAILURES=""
+
+ok() {
+  PASS=$((PASS + 1))
+  printf '  ok    %s\n' "$1"
+}
+
+bad() {
+  FAIL=$((FAIL + 1))
+  FAILURES="${FAILURES}\n  - $1"
+  printf '  FAIL  %s\n' "$1"
+}
+
+# Fetch a URL into a file, echoing the HTTP status. Cached per URL.
+fetch() {
+  local url=$1 dest=$2 ua=${3:-}
+  if [ -s "$dest" ]; then
+    cat "$dest.status"
+    return 0
+  fi
+  local status
+  if [ -n "$ua" ]; then
+    status=$(curl -sS -A "$ua" -o "$dest" -w '%{http_code}' --max-time 120 "$url" 2>/dev/null)
+  else
+    status=$(curl -sS -o "$dest" -w '%{http_code}' --max-time 120 "$url" 2>/dev/null)
+  fi
+  echo "$status" > "$dest.status"
+  echo "$status"
+}
+
+head_status() {
+  curl -sS -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' -I --max-time 60 "$1" 2>/dev/null
+}
+
+# Package names from a gzipped PACKAGES index, sorted.
+pkg_names() {
+  gunzip -c "$1" 2>/dev/null | awk '/^Package:/ {print $2}' | sort -u
+}
+
+# "<steered> <source-fallbacks>" for a per-minor index: how many entries carry a
+# Path: field, and how many of those lack a Built: field (i.e. are sources).
+fallback_counts() {
+  gunzip -c "$1" 2>/dev/null | awk '
+    /^Package:/ { pkg = $2; path = ""; built = "" }
+    /^Path:/    { path = $2 }
+    /^Built:/   { built = $2 }
+    /^$/        { if (pkg != "" && path != "") { n++; if (built == "") s++ } pkg = "" }
+    END         { if (pkg != "" && path != "") { n++; if (built == "") s++ }
+                  printf "%d %d\n", n, s }
+  '
+}
+
+# How many packages a client of <minor> would receive as source through
+# per-minor routing while the generic slot holds a binary built under that very
+# minor. Zero is the bar for enabling a slot.
+regression_count() {
+  local minor_file=$1 flat_file=$2 minor=$3
+  gunzip -c "$flat_file" 2>/dev/null | awk -v m="$minor" '
+    /^Package:/ { pkg = $2; built = "" }
+    /^Built:/   { built = $2 " " $3 }
+    /^$/        { if (pkg != "" && built ~ ("^R " m "\\.")) print pkg; pkg = "" }
+  ' | sort -u > "$minor_file.flatbin"
+  gunzip -c "$minor_file" 2>/dev/null | awk '
+    /^Package:/ { pkg = $2; path = ""; built = "" }
+    /^Path:/    { path = $2 }
+    /^Built:/   { built = $2 }
+    /^$/        { if (pkg != "" && path != "" && built == "") print pkg; pkg = "" }
+  ' | sort -u > "$minor_file.src"
+  comm -12 "$minor_file.src" "$minor_file.flatbin" | wc -l
+}
+
+# "<Package> <Path>" pairs for entries that carry a Path: field.
+path_entries() {
+  gunzip -c "$1" 2>/dev/null | awk '
+    /^Package:/ { pkg = $2; ver = ""; path = "" }
+    /^Version:/ { ver = $2 }
+    /^Path:/    { path = $2 }
+    /^$/        { if (pkg != "" && path != "") print pkg, ver, path; pkg = "" }
+    END         { if (pkg != "" && path != "") print pkg, ver, path }
+  '
+}
+
+# An R User-Agent of the shape R actually sends.
+r_user_agent() {
+  printf 'R/%s.0 (Ubuntu 24.04; codename=noble) (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu x86_64 linux-gnu)' "$1"
+}
+
+echo "verify-r-minor-routing: $BASE"
+echo "  slots:  $(echo "$ARCHES" | wc -w) arch x $(echo "$DISTROS" | wc -w) os"
+echo "  minors: $MINORS  (excluded: $EXCLUDED_MINORS)"
+echo "  live:   $LIVE"
+echo
+
+for arch in $ARCHES; do
+  for distro in $DISTROS; do
+    slot="$arch/$distro"
+    echo "$slot"
+
+    flat_url="$BASE/$slot/latest/src/contrib/PACKAGES.gz"
+    flat_file="$WORK/${arch}-${distro}-flat.gz"
+    flat_status=$(fetch "$flat_url" "$flat_file")
+
+    if [ "$flat_status" != "200" ]; then
+      bad "$slot flat index unreachable (HTTP $flat_status)"
+      continue
+    fi
+
+    pkg_names "$flat_file" > "$flat_file.names"
+    flat_count=$(wc -l < "$flat_file.names")
+    if [ "$flat_count" -lt 1000 ]; then
+      bad "$slot flat index has only $flat_count packages"
+      continue
+    fi
+    ok "$slot flat index: $flat_count packages"
+
+    for minor in $MINORS; do
+      minor_url="$BASE/$slot/latest/src/contrib/$minor/PACKAGES.gz"
+      minor_file="$WORK/${arch}-${distro}-${minor}.gz"
+      minor_status=$(fetch "$minor_url" "$minor_file")
+
+      # A minor the router would route to must exist, or clients on that R
+      # version get a 404 and see no packages at all.
+      if [ "$minor_status" != "200" ]; then
+        bad "$slot R $minor index missing (HTTP $minor_status) - routing would 404 for R $minor clients"
+        continue
+      fi
+
+      pkg_names "$minor_file" > "$minor_file.names"
+      minor_count=$(wc -l < "$minor_file.names")
+
+      # Union property: nothing the flat index carries may be missing here.
+      missing=$(comm -23 "$flat_file.names" "$minor_file.names" | head -5)
+      missing_count=$(comm -23 "$flat_file.names" "$minor_file.names" | wc -l)
+      if [ "$missing_count" -ne 0 ]; then
+        bad "$slot R $minor index is not a union: $missing_count flat packages absent (e.g. $(echo "$missing" | tr '\n' ' '))"
+      else
+        ok "$slot R $minor index: $minor_count packages, union holds"
+      fi
+
+      # A per-minor entry that is a source fallback resolves fine but makes the
+      # client compile. Routing to a slot that is mostly fallbacks does not
+      # deliver the binaries we advertise.
+      read -r steered fallbacks <<< "$(fallback_counts "$minor_file")"
+      if [ "${steered:-0}" -gt 0 ]; then
+        pct=$((fallbacks * 100 / steered))
+        printf '        note: %s/%s per-minor entries are source fallbacks (%s%%)\n' \
+          "$fallbacks" "$steered" "$pct"
+      fi
+
+      # The gate: nothing may arrive as source here that the generic slot would
+      # have served as a binary built under this same minor.
+      regressions=$(regression_count "$minor_file" "$flat_file" "$minor")
+      if [ "${regressions:-0}" -gt "$MAX_REGRESSIONS" ]; then
+        bad "$slot R $minor: $regressions packages would be served as source but exist as an R $minor binary in the generic slot"
+      else
+        ok "$slot R $minor: no regression against the generic slot"
+      fi
+
+      # Path: entries steer to per-minor binaries; they must resolve.
+      if [ "$SAMPLE" -gt 0 ]; then
+        path_entries "$minor_file" > "$minor_file.paths"
+        total_paths=$(wc -l < "$minor_file.paths")
+        broken=0
+        checked=0
+        while read -r pkg ver path; do
+          [ -z "${pkg:-}" ] && continue
+          tarball="$BASE/$slot/latest/src/contrib/$path/${pkg}_${ver}.tar.gz"
+          status=$(head_status "$tarball")
+          checked=$((checked + 1))
+          if [ "$status" != "200" ]; then
+            broken=$((broken + 1))
+            [ "$broken" -le 2 ] && printf '        broken target: %s (HTTP %s)\n' "$tarball" "$status"
+          fi
+        done < <(shuf -n "$SAMPLE" "$minor_file.paths" 2>/dev/null || head -n "$SAMPLE" "$minor_file.paths")
+
+        if [ "$broken" -ne 0 ]; then
+          bad "$slot R $minor: $broken/$checked sampled Path: targets do not resolve (of $total_paths total)"
+        elif [ "$checked" -gt 0 ]; then
+          ok "$slot R $minor: $checked/$checked sampled Path: targets resolve (of $total_paths total)"
+        fi
+      fi
+
+      # Live routing: what a real R client on this minor actually receives.
+      if [ "$LIVE" -eq 1 ]; then
+        ua=$(r_user_agent "$minor")
+        live_file="$WORK/${arch}-${distro}-${minor}-live.gz"
+        live_status=$(fetch "$flat_url" "$live_file" "$ua")
+        if [ "$live_status" != "200" ]; then
+          bad "$slot R $minor live request failed (HTTP $live_status)"
+        elif cmp -s "$live_file" "$minor_file"; then
+          ok "$slot R $minor live request served the per-minor index"
+        elif cmp -s "$live_file" "$flat_file"; then
+          bad "$slot R $minor live request served the FLAT index - slot not in UNION_SLOTS?"
+        else
+          bad "$slot R $minor live request served neither the per-minor nor the flat index"
+        fi
+      fi
+    done
+
+    # Coverage parity across minors. The union property only guarantees no
+    # client loses packages relative to the flat index; it says nothing about a
+    # 4.4 client seeing fewer packages than a 4.5 client on the same slot.
+    best=0
+    for minor in $MINORS; do
+      f="$WORK/${arch}-${distro}-${minor}.gz.names"
+      [ -s "$f" ] || continue
+      c=$(wc -l < "$f")
+      [ "$c" -gt "$best" ] && best=$c
+    done
+    if [ "$best" -gt 0 ]; then
+      uneven=""
+      for minor in $MINORS; do
+        f="$WORK/${arch}-${distro}-${minor}.gz.names"
+        [ -s "$f" ] || continue
+        c=$(wc -l < "$f")
+        gap=$((best - c))
+        [ "$gap" -gt "$PARITY_TOLERANCE" ] && uneven="$uneven R$minor:-$gap"
+      done
+      if [ -n "$uneven" ]; then
+        bad "$slot coverage uneven across minors (vs best $best):$uneven"
+      else
+        ok "$slot coverage parity across minors (best $best, all within $PARITY_TOLERANCE)"
+      fi
+    fi
+
+    # Excluded minors: no published index, and under --live a redirect to CRAN.
+    for minor in $EXCLUDED_MINORS; do
+      ex_url="$BASE/$slot/latest/src/contrib/$minor/PACKAGES.gz"
+      ex_status=$(curl -sS -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --max-time 60 "$ex_url" 2>/dev/null)
+      if [ "$ex_status" = "200" ]; then
+        bad "$slot R $minor is excluded but an index is published - the two lists disagree"
+      else
+        ok "$slot R $minor correctly has no published index"
+      fi
+
+      if [ "$LIVE" -eq 1 ]; then
+        loc=$(curl -sS -o /dev/null -w '%{redirect_url}' -A "$(r_user_agent "$minor")" \
+          --max-time 60 "$flat_url" 2>/dev/null)
+        case "$loc" in
+          https://cran.r-project.org/*)
+            ok "$slot R $minor is sent to CRAN ($loc)"
+            ;;
+          "")
+            bad "$slot R $minor was served directly instead of being sent to CRAN"
+            ;;
+          *)
+            bad "$slot R $minor redirected somewhere unexpected: $loc"
+            ;;
+        esac
+      fi
+    done
+
+    # A client whose User-Agent carries no R version must keep getting the flat
+    # index, never a per-minor one.
+    if [ "$LIVE" -eq 1 ]; then
+      plain_file="$WORK/${arch}-${distro}-plain.gz"
+      plain_status=$(fetch "$flat_url" "$plain_file" "curl/8.0.0")
+      if [ "$plain_status" != "200" ]; then
+        bad "$slot non-R User-Agent request failed (HTTP $plain_status)"
+      elif cmp -s "$plain_file" "$flat_file"; then
+        ok "$slot non-R User-Agent still served the flat index"
+      else
+        bad "$slot non-R User-Agent was routed away from the flat index"
+      fi
+
+      # Tarball requests must never be rewritten into a per-minor directory:
+      # flat-slot packages do not live there.
+      sample_pkg=$(gunzip -c "$flat_file" | awk '/^Package:/ {p=$2} /^Version:/ {print p, $2; exit}')
+      if [ -n "$sample_pkg" ]; then
+        # shellcheck disable=SC2086 # deliberate split into $1 (package) and $2 (version)
+        set -- $sample_pkg
+        tb="$BASE/$slot/latest/src/contrib/${1}_${2}.tar.gz"
+        tb_status=$(curl -sS -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' -A "$(r_user_agent 4.5)" --max-time 60 "$tb" 2>/dev/null)
+        if [ "$tb_status" = "200" ]; then
+          ok "$slot tarball request under an R User-Agent still resolves"
+        else
+          bad "$slot tarball ${1}_${2}.tar.gz broke under an R User-Agent (HTTP $tb_status)"
+        fi
+      fi
+    fi
+  done
+done
+
+echo
+echo "passed: $PASS   failed: $FAIL"
+if [ "$FAIL" -ne 0 ]; then
+  printf 'failures:%b\n' "$FAILURES"
+  exit 1
+fi